Page 11 - Super Floral > August 2016 Issue
P. 11

stats&facts                                                                                                                   click here

                                           election years

History shows how markets and consumer spending fluctuate
             before and after a U.S. presidential election.

Research on U.S. consumer                  1.2%                                                     11.5%
spending reveals possible
market changes to be mindful                                                                         The average percentage by
of as the presidential election                                                                      which the S&P 500 has risen in
approaches.                                                                                          the fourth year of a president’s
                                                                                                     time in office, historically stand-
FUN ELECTION FACTS                         The average percentage by which the                       ing in contrast to the final year of
                                           Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index                         second presidential terms.
When the U.S. Republican Party             (S&P 500) has fallen in the final year of
secures important electoral victo-         two-term presidencies since 1900. The                        $$
ries, Democrats respond by pur-            market fell by 41 percent during the
chasing significantly more alcohol.        final year of George W. Bush’s second                    Source: CNBC’s Quarterly Investment Guide,
                                           term in 2008.
Source: Journal of Wine Economics
                                           Source: CNBC’s Quarterly Investment Guide,

Gun and ammunition sales go                harmful hesitations                          doubtful dissenters
up every time a Democrat wins
a national election, presumably             In the final year of a presi-               Research confirms that when a candidate in an
to conservative buyers.                     dential term, looking at the                opposing party wins a presidential election, partisan
                                            last several dozen election                 consumers lose confidence in the economy. Howev-
Source: The Atlantic,   cycles, research shows                      er, these changes in sentiment consistently result in
                                            big corporate investments                   no observable changes in the amount of spending
                                            are routinely postponed                     from said partisan consumers.
                                            and stock markets often
                                            trend down.                                 Source: University of Michigan “Survey of Consumers”

                                           Source: The New York Times,

                                                                                        housing market

                                                                                        The year-over-year price increase of housing advances
                                                                                        the least during an election year.




                                                                                        before election year
                                                                                                                 during election year
                                                                                                                                           after election

                                                                                        Source: Movoto,                                       sf

42 / august 2016
   6   7   8   9   10   11