Retail industry sales this year will rise 3.4 percent, to $2.53 trillion, predicts the National Retail Federation (NRF).

This reflects a slightly lower pace than in 2011, a year in which sales grew 4.7 percent, but a faster rate than is predicted for other industries. Many economists estimate that real U.S. GDP will rise approximately 2.1 percent to 2.4 percent.

“Over the last 18 months, retailers have been on the forefront of the economic recovery – creating jobs, encouraging consumer spending, and investing in America,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “Our 2012 forecast is a vote of confidence in the retail industry and our ability to succeed even in a challenging economy. Retailers have played a key role in driving growth, but to continue this momentum, we need Washington to act on proposals that will spur job creation and unleash the power of the private sector.”

Though retailers ended last year on a strong note with holiday sales rising 4.1 percent over 2010 — surpassing NRF’s holiday sales forecast of 3.8 percent growth — many factors will continue to influence the expected slowdown in consumer spending, but none remain more cumbersome than the stalled unemployment rate and lack of newly created jobs. A number of factors contributed to NRF’s 2012 economic forecast, including:

• Employment: The number of Americans out of work is at its lowest level in nearly three years, and the rise in employment and hours worked should bolster income and spending.

• Income growth: Consumers are constrained by modest growth in income. Congress extended the cuts in payroll taxes and unemployment benefits for only two months. While these provide a lift and are likely, consumers may act cautiously until both are approved. Income is predicted to lag consumption on a year-over-year basis.

• Housing: While most of the economic reports dealing with housing have shown a little more strength, these reports should be treated with caution because some of the improvement is due to unseasonably mild weather. NRF expects home sales and construction will improve slightly in 2012, with low interest rates and affordability at an almost 30-year high.

• Inflation: Increased costs have been a drain on consumer purchasing power due to extraordinary agricultural commodity price inflation as well as high oil prices due to global geopolitical tensions. NRF expects inflation to slow down, to near 2 percent. Rising gas prices may also put pressure on spending.

• Consumer credit: Easier lending standards are expanding consumer credit. Revolving credit appeared to break out from its holding pattern, showing a big surge in November, which indicates consumers have confidence to take on debt.

Source: National Retail Federation (NRF)